Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 80726.072561 85233.630040 89740.553966 94581.736707 99631.534754 104740.325304 110296.175150
2025-01-26 74224.117522 81192.754729 88355.278778 96257.112333 104719.687644 113500.589610 123290.163587
2025-02-02 69757.130183 78464.511810 87609.529518 97909.089347 109164.434490 121069.105151 134590.723103
2025-02-09 65785.524446 75763.303699 86434.731574 98662.240879 112249.176965 126847.329630 143681.088122
2025-02-16 61968.303200 72882.258617 84744.546191 98544.134875 114102.855594 131048.562893 150845.636202
2025-02-23 59115.492464 70849.998633 83789.124146 99045.263375 116468.454262 135672.384514 158363.662588
2025-03-02 56370.746728 68758.029952 82600.853397 99126.424358 118222.945348 139501.330454 164903.977343
2025-03-09 54623.302201 67698.261283 82487.507721 100341.285143 121191.245768 144649.397896 172910.989956
2025-03-16 52072.882386 65567.197480 81014.607457 99869.004205 122115.775257 147382.553720 178093.627025
2025-03-23 50863.398362 64955.279234 81259.434910 101354.029459 125280.496565 152680.551767 186242.878920
2025-03-30 49435.788335 64007.415769 81042.053209 102235.457800 127692.040333 157076.447823 193336.200907
2025-04-06 47673.026595 62575.836194 80177.349927 102280.350657 129058.753900 160209.776449 198927.359190
2025-04-13 45851.347100 61033.532122 79153.747320 102123.729378 130195.501790 163107.364316 204310.269139
2025-04-20 45148.996831 60854.105506 79773.841149 103958.511876 133742.287500 168902.039800 213198.696121
2025-04-27 44467.802660 60665.735873 80355.598631 105727.873658 137204.796335 174608.032870 222016.289972
2025-05-04 43369.970855 59902.439618 80183.719418 106531.746083 139462.589398 178852.642245 229082.033779
2025-05-11 41902.027061 58611.436705 79302.489755 106406.658263 140538.474716 181638.453807 234368.805249
2025-05-18 40819.305826 57780.495944 78968.622386 106939.923324 142411.524867 185390.319491 240843.265996
2025-05-25 39596.096117 56723.699372 78309.044691 107026.293251 143698.953138 188407.116317 246414.518870
2025-06-01 38964.506732 56424.832126 78604.706436 108318.622157 146501.560664 193306.783670 254337.392245
2025-06-08 37598.864708 55102.962787 77534.377017 107816.251023 146996.672647 195313.845841 258658.683281
2025-06-15 37168.563766 55024.545504 78076.277342 109395.801343 150151.394677 200662.946938 267183.771890
2025-06-22 36497.435605 54595.279647 78137.033367 110333.204919 152475.239357 204971.824433 274424.287511